Advance or... Strategic Retreat?

Nikki Haley faces a very big choice

I’m writing this from somewhere over Kansas as I fly west from Boston. I could tell Nikki wasn’t going to make it in NH, so I decided to split before the polls closed.

Looks like Nikki closed a bit better than the 17 to 22 point wipeout the wildly over Trumpy late polls predicted. I had a 10ish point loss as my prediction so I’m glad I took the under.

Now, a few thoughts about Nikki’s current situation. I just watched her concession speech from the semi-comfort of a Jet Blue airline seat. I couldn’t hear it, so I read the subtle. She’s a fighter, I’ll give her that. Doesn’t believe in quitting, like most people who eventually claw their way to Oval, or at least close to it. That’s a plus.

And to be fair, Nikki did win the pre-season, bubbling to the top of a whole gaggle of other contenders, most of whom turned out to be epically awful political performers with core strategies of trying to beat Trump by praising him. She got lucky with that crowd.

In her speech I saw her battlecry about marching on to South Carolina, two person race, etc. etc.

I’d think that one through a bit more if I were her.

No doubt she’ll have a ton of high dollar finance types telling her to stay in and fight on. It’ a natural emotional reaction to a hard loss. And to many, it’ll look like the smart move. I can hear their pitch; “It’s down to two now, so why get out? Why rush? I mean who knows, maybe Trump will celebrate tonight with two meat loaf supremes and double cheeseburger and, well, you know what I’m saying…”

It’s the emotional move. But this is hard politics and if Team Nikki needs an emotional crutch I’d suggest she get a labradoodle, rather than try to reenact the Charge of the Light Brigade.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m normally all-in with the romantics, but S.C. sure looks like a trap to me. Nikki doesn’t have much S.C. muscle anymore. Most of the insider GOP pols there don’t like her. And once you get outside of the French nails and tasteful pastels set around Charleston, she doesn’t have a whole lot of diehard Haley voters to the contest either.

Nikki’s big chance was New Hampshire, a state I think she could have won. (Looking at tonight’s numbers only reinforces my view. Sadly she didn’t know how to play the NH upset game. And she lacked a compelling overall narrative about why her and why not Trump. Instead she became a vessel for non-GOP base voters in New Hampshire who burst into the Republican primary today to give the ol’ Orange Menace a good poke in the eyeballs. That vote was always gonna be there and it could have been a key component of a primary winning Nikki coalition, but alone it wasn’t enough. She needed more Republicans.)

If Nikki had beat Trump in NH, she would have drawn real blood and then set herself up for the heavy lift of beating him again in S.C. But she would have had a shot. That, and in my view only that, would have done Trump in. Mr. Invicible cannot lose two big contests in a row. Three if you count 2020 against Biden.

But that didn’t happen. And S.C. is tougher territory for Haley than N.H. ever was. Plus the MAGA Media Machine pounding will begin. Democrats flooding into the N.H. primary to wound Trump with their sinister tool Nikki Haley, etc etc etc,

So now Nikki needs to do a little long term thinking. The deep urge to run for President is much like a chronic disease; it never truly goes away. Nikki is young and an excellent political athlete. Second tries often work out, at least to win the party nomination (George H.W. Bush, Bob Dole (three tries), John McCain, Mitt Romney all pulled it off.

Nikki has one big resource Trump doesn’t have: time. And therein lies the big fork in the strategic road before her.

Path one, is to go the way of Ron DeSycophantis (new name alert!) and roll over big for Trump. Ron is pivoting to get right with MAGA world with neck-snapping speed. (I expect a sonic boom any minute.) He’ll now try to elbow his way past the Scott’s and Noem’s and Burgum’s and God knows who else to get on to the Vice-Presidential whispering list. It’s a MAGA rehab plan pure and simple, and it’s all about 2028. I’ll lay good money Casey has already bought a four-year count-down calendar and put it in a Very Special Place on the fridge door right next to her rapidly growing Get Even list.

While hoping on the Trump train now may look like smart inside GOP politics — Trump has just smashed his way through the early primaries — but a stapling yourself to Trump for the long term may ultimately be a dumb bet on a really lousy horse.

Because for Donald Trump, winter is coming. It is just a matter of when.

First, Trump may lose again. Biden is looking weak now; he can certainly lose his re-elect. But Trump’s general election baggage keeps growing. He’s now lapping Joe Biden in the mental acuity sweepstakes that seems to have become the prime issue in the Presidential race and his legal problems, like a slow moving but unstoppable lava stream, are not going away. If Trump becomes a two-time loser to Joe Biden, the party will start looking for a reset. That of course, relies on the Democrats fixing candidate Biden, which we may never see.

If Trump beats Biden, it’ll probably still be an electoral disaster for the GOP in the 2026 midterms. So path one for Nikki is follow DeSantis, MAGA up and get inside the tent, if she can. Her recent attacks on Trump will make that difficult and put her already troublesome reputation for, um, pliability on heavy steroids. That’s bad mojo Haley ‘28 doesn’t need.

Path two for Nikki is far more interesting. She could opt to avoid joining the Trump suck up parade with the others and instead, rest her case. Declare support for the party nominee and then, crucially, go away for a while. (Tepid support mind you, but a perfunctory Trump endorsement is a tribal requirement. It also preempts a bunch of stupid third party speculation. Politics is tough, you have to learn to handle the mouth vomit and keep moving.)

Then, as Orange Disaster inevitably strikes either in November of this year or after Trump tries to burn down the rule of law from the White House, there will be plenty of time to re-appear, after the big Orange crack up, with a simple and effective forward looking persona to Joe and Joan Republican primary voter: “You know, Nikki saw it all coming and she warned us.” That could be a very unique and powerful position in 2027.

How going to S.C. now to valiantly die in action — in a landslide — impacts the play the long game option is complicated. One hand, Nikki can gamely campaign on and keep warning us, building that brand. But another big loss, in her home state, with the entirety of the Vichy collaborator class of the GOP’s leadership loudly urging her to give it up for the good of the party against Joe Biden will leave nasty mark. I just don’t see the upside.

Let me be clear that I’m just outlining a Nikki strategic plan to have the best possible shot to take a serious try at the nomination post Trump. Just an exercise in political strategic planning, since I’m a veteran of that kind of thing. It’s a clinical exercise.

In my heart I want Nikki to go to S.C. attack Trump 24/7 and maybe find a way to get close enough to stun him with a well thrown steel-toed heel and then put a tight sleeper hold on him and save America. (Note to the USSS; that’s a joke. Probably.)

So Nikki, I say declare victory, be a good soldier, don’t go down in flames in S.C. and instead, leave ‘em wanting more.

Retreat into the vast steppes of national politics and let Trump perish in the next three year’s harsh and never ending political winter. If you want to be President, play the long game. (But it’s still fine with me if you throw the mighty heel!)