Pop vs Soda & Trump vs Biden...

A Highly Carbonated Way to Look at the Big Six States

Like everybody in professional politics I’ve been obsessing for months over the handful of key states (and one Congressional District) that will determine the outcome of the Presidential race. As is oft-repeated, for all the hundreds of millions of voters, blah, blah, the whole caper will, in the end, boil down to a few thousand of voters in just 6 or 7 key swing states.

While big macro factors — Biden age, Biden economic ratings, Trump crazy factor/risk, Abortion rights, big outside events/world affairs — will drive most of the election in those places much like everywhere else, there are also a ton of micro factors that any political pro will obsess over. Here’s a list, by no means all-encompassing, of those sort of little but mighty things could have an impact in a close, ultra high-stakes race:

— Local Economy

— Images of local pols; for good or bad.

— How good each state party is at mechanics (bigger problem for GOP since in key places like MI and AZ the local party is a Benny Hill sketch; with idiots in aluminum foil hats running around in over-cranked circles).

— Is there a local abortion rights measure, actually on the ballot?

— Is there a large and (vitally important to Biden) city with a significant Black population (like Detroit, Philadelphia, Milwaukee or Atlanta)? Will the Trump campaign spend local money boosting attention on independent candidate Cornel West?

The list goes on and on. Which is why experienced political people are not very good at sleep during Presidential campaign years.

Now, let’s look at that key state list. Call it the Big Six, with two or three maybe states. The Big Six are, as has been much reported, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. The Dems would like to add North Carolina to the list (the GOP Gubernatorial nominee there is, shall we say, no prize winner) and GOP strategists have always dreamed of snatching Minnesota. Some might even add to the maybe list a few states that recent (early) polling shows Biden facing trouble in (Virginia, NH). I don’t really buy that because if by October things are so bad that Virginia is in play for the R’s, then the Big Six don’t matter anymore. It’s iceberg off the starboard bow time for the Biden re-elect

I have noticed an interesting trend among the Big Six. The northern “metal bending” states — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — look at bit better for Biden than the somewhat grim numbers he faces among the sunbelt states in the Big Six — Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — where he lags Trump by at least 4 points in each. So most observers, as of now, would say the Biden “path” to re-election likely runs through the metal benders plus Nebraska’s Omaha area Congressional District (since, like Maine, Nebraska is a bit quirky in Electoral College matters and casts it EC votes by Congressional District rather than by winner take all.)

Looking at that north vs south/west split, I’ve decided to make my own contribution to the great yet meaningless canon of Pithy Pundit Observations (reduce a highly complex situation to a simple catchy analogy easily repeated at cocktail parties and on cable news) with a humdinger of my own: this is the Pop vs Soda election.

Most Americans use the phrase “Soda” to describe carbonated soft drinks like Coke and Pepsi. (Some folks based out of Atlanta would say just “Coke” works fine and in many Southern states that is also true.) But those of us lucky enough to be from the great Midwest call those drinks “Pop”. I was shocked to learn this hard fact of life when I showed up a million years ago in Washington DC as a freshman at Georgetown and heard everyone oddly calling pop “soda”.

Looking at the Presidential race, it appears America faces a real Pop vs Soda divide!

If you break the Big Six states into the three swings where it’s closest and Biden is in the hunt — MI/PA/WI — it’s Pop. In the three swing states where Biden is currently trailing by a bit more — AZ, GA, NV — it’s Soda.

The fight is on. Soda may be more prevalent, but it appears Pop owns the critical Presidential real estate!

Keep in mind this whole Pop vs. Soda thing is no small business to many opinionated soft drink aficionados; each state has its vocal soft drink moniker minority. In eastern PA, you hear Soda a lot, while Pittsburgh is a solid Pop town. Michigan is firmly on team Pop, as is most of Wisconsin.

If Trump wins the three Soda swing states in the South and West, and Biden wins the three Midwestern Pop states… the electoral college will teeter precariously at Biden 269, Trump 268.

At that point America’s nervous — and thirsty — eyes will turn to the first Congressional District of Nebraska. This Omaha swing district — it elected a GOP Congressman yet went for Biden in 2020 — and its sole Electoral College vote could either tip the election to Biden (270 to 268)… or create a 269 to 269 tie (!) and throw the election to the House. (Where each state would have one vote.)

At that point I predict America will ditch the whole Pop vs. Soda thing and go straight for whisky vs vodka.

So, you ask, is Omaha a Pop, or Soda town?

It’s murky. And my local investigators tell me many people say… wait for it… “soda pop.” Damn you quirky split your Electoral College votes Nebraska! Still, the consensus I get back from my soft drink guzzling field agents on Maple street in the Big O is while you hear both terms, Pop holds the lead.

So until I get a definitive call from five-Coke-a-day drinker and Omaha Big Kahuna Warren Buffet or somebody does a scientific voter poll (of Omaha CD 1 only, not the whole state) the Biden path is the Pop states. So if Joe pulls off a Pop state fueled comeback win here’s my advice: serve Detroit’s famous Vernors and Faygo Pop at the Inaugural!