Great Scott?

High Noon for Tim Scott... and His Alpha Problem

As the first debate looms over the GOP nomination race, nobody has a bigger decision to make than Sen. Tim Scott.

For all the punditocracy noise about national primary voter polls and Donald Trump’s supposed unbreakable lock on the Republican Party (I’m still dubious), in my view the nomination race boils down to a brutally simple formula: somebody has to beat Trump in Iowa and then a week or so later in New Hampshire. That would upend the race and Trump would quickly melt into orange goo Wicked Witch of the West style. And the polling I see shows Trump doing worse in Iowa and New Hampshire — where he is starting to have competition — than he is nationally.

With enough vodka, you can formulate this beat Trump in Iowa and New Hampshire scenario for each of the major contenders. DeSantis could have a comeback, he’s doing better on the ground in Iowa than in the airy salons and green rooms of the Beltway conventional wisdom machine. But the terror of Tallahassee is still a lousy candidate with campaign mired in a Stalingrad of fratricide while saddled with a lousy strategy of being a dime-store version of Donald Trump. Nikki Haley might have a terrific debate moment, which somehow fuels a comeback. Maybe. But probably not. Vivek Ramaswamy is enjoying the primary cycle’s usual Ben Carson/Herman Cain/Steve Forbes outsider oddball’s early bump, but I doubt it will last through the winter. Doug Burgum, despite a terrific launch video, is inexplicably running for Secretary of Energy. I’ll discuss the ceiling hanging over Chris Christie a bit later.

To my mind, it is Sen. Tim Scott who has the biggest set of advantages. He’s very well-funded; so he is all over early state paid media and becoming better known where it counts. People like him and his story. (One new private poll of New Hampshire, albeit for a rival non-Trump campaign, shows him with the best fav/unfav numbers in the field and running only six points behind Trump in a hypothetical two-way race, also the best two-way showing in the field. Not current reality I know, but an interesting tell about the GOP electorate.) Most importantly, Scott is the only optimist in the race; the sole major GOP candidate not running with an apocalyptic Trumpian view of America. Like the beloved tuxedo and ballgown comedies of the Great Depression; Scott is refreshing relief from the grim grievance cacophony of the current GOP.

That’s the good news. Here is the bad news: Scott remains a long shot and faces two big challenges. First, he’s letting short term tactics prevent him from devising a winning long term strategy. Second, and most important, he’s not running as an Alpha. That is a fatal flaw in a Presidential race.

First Scott’s tactics. Scott is running with a plan; I’ve heard it played back several times from pols and big donors he’s pitched. First, unite the social conservative right and win Iowa, wounding Trump. Second, let somebody else win New Hampshire. Third, come home to South Carolina and win big there. Surge to a nomination victory.

The big flaw here? If Scott does win the Iowa caucus — he has a solid shot in my view — his plan to essentially abdicate New Hampshire gives a wounded Trump exactly the miracle elixir he’d need most: a big, flashy, winning comeback. Trump’s brand is “winning” and it is badly fractured after so many big loses. First to Joe Biden, then to the legal system, and next, a (potential) loss in Iowa despite his Sky High Invincible President Rasputin expectations. If an Iowa victorious Scott doesn’t run the table into New Hampshire and beat Trump again, the Comeback Crank will easily sweep the rest of the primaries, including South Carolina. Scott (and Haley) greatly (and typically) over estimate their strength there. The late fortress strategy always loses. Voters have an unstoppable God-given right to screw over Hacks and destroy their best laid political plans: they can change their minds. In Presidential primary politics, fortresses exist only in the mind of incumbent politicians.

One big reason I think Scott has fallen into this “I win Iowa, then a Magic Hobo wins New Hampshire, then I win South Carolina and it’s all over” strategy is the great difficulty in winning both of those vital early contests. New Hampshire’s GOP primary electorate is far more secular than Iowa’s — at least historically — and running the Holy Champion Christian playbook to win Iowa’s caucuses has traditionally destroyed that candidate a week or two later in New Hampshire. As experienced Hacks often joke: “What’s the best slogan to win New Hampshire? F@ck Iowa.” Past results bear that out. Here are the New Hampshire Republican primary results from campaigns that soared out of Iowa just to hit the granite of the Granite State:

President Pat Robertson (1988) 13% (5th place)

President Mike Huckabee (2008) 11% (3rd place)

President Rick Santorum (2012) 9% (4th place)

President Ted Cruz (2006) 12% (3rd place)

I’m sure the Scott campaign thinks they have no other alternative; no Christian strategy = no Iowa win = campaign over. I get it. But to Scott I’d say: taking the nomination from Trump was never gonna be easy pal! If you are crazy enough to run against a (supposedly) cannot-be-politically-killed Rasputin like Trump, you should be crazy enough to try a more inventive strategy. It’s also a bad bet to assume “someone else” will magically beat Trump in New Hampshire. A Scott Iowa win will badly undercut anybody doing well in New Hampshire. Plus, who would it be? Christie? His support only seems to exist in New Hampshire and it’s limited even there. It is tough to imagine it growing enough to beat Trump. Remember, Christie’s style and personality were thoroughly tested there in 2016 and while he indeed wounded Rubio, he finished behind Marco, in 6th place.

My suggestion to Senator Scott is to remember that not every campaign is best planned through the rear-view mirror. A few new factors about Iowa Scott should consider:

1.) Scott’s biggest advantage is his optimistic/Reaganesque vibe. Use it. Unlike the hard social conservative tact, it has appeal across the board, including NH and beyond.

2.) There are 160,000+ Democrats and D-leaning independents in Iowa who now have nothing to do on caucus night since the all-knowing DNC killed their off caucuses. Who says they all just stay home on January 15th? The caucus is culturally very important in civic-minded Iowa and it’s very easy to be a “Republican for a night”, showing up and participating. If even just 15-20% of the these voters opt do that, it will be a mathematically material change to the GOP caucus electorate. And hint: these are not conservative Christians, but an optimistic Republican who is not Donald J. Trump will really stand out. (I wrote more about this in the Bulwark back in April.)

3.) DeSantis is not going to give the entire conservative Christian vote to Scott. He can play that horn too, and with a jumpin’ Old Testament beat that the affable Scott cannot match. More than a few of Iowa’s social conservative generalissimos are tilting toward DeSantis already. And the price of such a fierce battle over just one chunk of the GOP coalition will be very expensive for Scott and not just in New Hampshire but in the general election as well. A noisy back and forth auction on who can be for stricter new limits on abortion? 12 weeks, 6 weeks, no weeks…. no social dancing? Good luck in the suburbs in the fall.

If Scott can beat Trump in Iowa with a coalition of regular Republicans and forward thinking social conservatives who smell the insincerity and evil on Trump combined with a bunch of civic minded temporary Republican Iowans… Scott could find the rocket fuel he needs to actually run the table from Iowa, to New Hampshire and then South Carolina and to the nomination.

Risky? Indeed. Very hard to pull off? Sure! But this plan is not a just tactic to win Iowa (and then lose the nomination), it is a strategy to win the nomination. Which is what Scott needs.

But this win Iowa with the right narrative and then break Trump in New Hampshire stuff is only half of the necessary formula. Scott also has to find his inner Alpha. To date he’s ducked every opportunity to put real distance between him and Trump. Why? The same reason why the logo of the leadership class of my once great Republican Party has morphed from a charging elephant into a cowering lemur. They all fear upsetting the tribal gravity of Trump’s GOP and being punished for it. The problem is, you cannot beat Trump for the nomination without… beating Trump. Their present theory of somehow just complementing him to death has been failing all year. Even worse, in effect it makes Trump stronger.

It’s the circle of life Simba: the young lion has to beat the old lion to become leader of the pride. You have to be top Alpha, and right now Tim Scott is running as a hopeless beta vis a vis Trump. There is an old Russian proverb about “how does one wash the bear without getting his fur wet”, a sensible problem since who wants a really pissed off wet bear looking right at you and your empty water pail? That has been Chris Christie’s problem: his frontal water pail attacks, while useful in a catalytic way and completely entertaining, will do nothing to actually get him the nomination. Stepping up to Trump as an Alpha is tricky business, he is the tribal kingpin for a huge chunk of the party after all, so doing it right requires a perfect storm of standing, spotlight and timing.

At the debate this week, Tim Scott will have all three.

Scott has standing. He has been a loyal solider in the conservative Republican cause, having supported Trump policies while keeping a wary, if subtle distance from the Trump cult of personality. As a real deal conservative with true social conservative credentials who is well-liked in the party, and increasingly well known and well liked in Iowa and New Hampshire, Scott has standing in the GOP tribe that Christie never had.

The debate will give Scott the spotlight, particularly if Trump isn’t there. (Note: I remain suspicious of the conventional wisdom that Trump won’t show up. It would be a big mistake; a limp beta move of its own. Tough guy Trump will both appear weak and foolishly give other candidate(s) the spotlight needed to have a star making turn of their own. Ignore the silly, often heard blather about nobody will be watching. In the internet era, everybody sees everything big and one night’s ratings are a secondary factor at best.)

So the debate will be a big spotlight. And if Trump does show up, that’s fine too. It would up the stakes and as any action movie screenwriter will tell you that is the key moment for the movie’s Alpha to make his or her big move.

Finally, Scott will have the moment. The party is in a nervous crescendo in the wake of Trump’s forth, and most understandable, indictment. The vast bulk of the party leadership is already there, thinking: we cannot get wiped out with this nutcase again, God help us, he is the one Republican even unpopular Joe Biden can beat. I am aware of polling showing a majority of primary voters sticking with Trump over the indictments, but I doubt those early numbers will stay solid. Usually the primary rank and file move last (and fast) and are never a very good early indicator. I think that support for Trump can and will melt fast, but what is known quietly must be said out loud and come from within the party tribe, not from sanctimonious liberals or partisan Democrats.

So what should Tim Scott do, standing as he will be in a perfect storm on Wednesday night? He does have an Alpha lurking inside him. You don’t come from where he started without it. We saw a glimpse of it when he effortlessly swatted down Ron DeSantis clumsy defense of Florida’s silly slavery stuff. But Ron DeSantis is always the smirking kid with briefcase and is easy to send off. Shaky but ensconced tribal leader Trump will be more difficult.

Scott will be asked the big Trump question Wednesday night and he needs an answer that is honest and direct; neither hedgy, nor complicated. Donald Trump has all the right enemies. I know because I have most of them too. As a black conservative, they think I should not even exist. That I, and our ideas, are illegitimate. I applaud President Trump’s policy accomplishments, I helped many pass the Senate. Our party is strong, because we hold moral weight. We are trying to make America better and reverse our moral and economic decline. For us, character counts. It must. We now know, and it is painful, that Donald Trump lacks the character to lead us and our movement, or to lead our county, as President of the United States. That is the truth we must face together, and it must be said. For our party, and our cause and our county. We need a new leader, to beat Joe Biden and move America forward.

(By the way, after saying that you don’t have to say much more on the Trump topic. Just refer back to it. No need to play detail games with the media. Switch forward and stay there.)

Well, so much for Vice President, which is what Scott’s beta campaign has convinced many observers is his true goal. Might be true, I don’t know. But running for Vice-President as a toady is a certain way to never be President, let alone Vice-President. I know the conventional view is saying anything like the above would doom Scott’s chances. Perhaps, or even probably. But running as Tim Scott is now, he’s already going to lose the race, both for the Republican nomination and for his own character. If the party wants a change, within the tribe, you have to test Trump’s true strength not with an early poll but with a campaign, a candidate and an argument.

Want to be a real conservative leader and a great President Senator Scott? You have to act like one, in the moment when it’s scary but it truly counts.