Epic Biden Debate Stakes and Haley's Fizzled Comet

A few thoughts for the long weekend.

You gotta give it to the New York Times. Twice already in the last six months the Times’ polling of the key six swing states has triggered a full-on Martian Invasion level panic in the Democratic ranks.

And full on panic may be just what is needed. The numbers are lousy, especially on the sunbelt side of the swing state map; Georgia, Arizona and particularly Nevada look quite grim for the President. (He’s looking a bit stronger in the MI/PA/WI metal bending wing of the swing state collection, but not by much.)

Now I know the Democratic “we are winning in zee East” spin room is trying to assure freaked-out Democrats (and democracy supporters in general) that it’s “still early” and the Big Push is soon to come. There is truth to that but…

Check out this interesting graph from Split-Ticket.org sent to me by ace pollster Dr. David Hill. It shows poll accuracy in predicting Presidential elections, charted over time.

As you can see, we now have the biggest polling inaccuracy period behind us. Of course a crafty spinmeister will say “Bunk! National polling isn’t the key indicator, state polling is!” And ol’ Dr Spin would be correct. But the problem for Biden is the swing states lean a bit more Republican than the national mean, so… national numbers may well indicate the state of the race in a more Democratic friendly way than the swing state reality. That’s why polling the popular vote has been imperfect in the last few Presidential races.

So Panic? Yes, start wetting your beds.

I will say Biden’s team handled the first big panic well, with a far better than expected State of the Union Address. Nothing works wonders quite like a candidate having a good night against extremely low expectations. Now, it looks to me like Team Joe returned to that playbook in wake of these latest awful NYT swing state numbers with the biggest flash bang grenade they could hurl: a big debate challenge.

And it worked. (Although I expect no shortage of last minute drop out threats and Diva haggling from Team Trump over details.)

The Biden debate challenge made good sense to me. Biden is losing and the campaign shot clock is ticking away. They have to shake the race up in a mighty way and earn a restart, as well as give Crazy Donald every possible opportunity to wound himself. The debate challenge was a strong offensive move and I always like offense.

Still, I wonder if Bidenland knows what a galaxy sized bet they actually made.

If Biden does well — and watch out for how the haggling lands over a small but key item in the Biden debate proposal: Trump’s mic is to be off when Biden is speaking and vice versa — he will have the great moment he so badly needs to reset this race and turn the Big Narrative away from all that deadly too old and feeble stuff which has burrowed itself deep into the electorate’s psyche.

But what happens if Dr Landy is unavailable pre-debate for a special injection (I kid, I kid) and Biden has a particularly bad Biden night? Something akin to his train wreck interview about the economy on CNN a few weeks ago? Biden has an unfortunate and politically tone deaf tendency to argue the data and tell people that, in fact mister, the economy is actually pretty great. Last November’s Thanksgiving victory lap was a perfect example.

That sort of mistake in the first big debate will be political death. Never, ever tell the customer they are wrong. Voters get to decide what they think about the economy, not politicians.

I even think such a really bad Biden night at the debate could potentially drive Biden out of the race.

What?!?

Now I know CW (mostly) scoffs at this idea. And I’m not running a spin scam here to hopelessly raise Biden expectations. Personally I’d rather lower them, by a lot. But this is an inside dope Substack, so here is what I really think.

If Biden has a bad debate, it will trigger a full Tsumani level of panic inside the Democratic universe. I think there will be calls for Biden to step aside and leave the race. Not the pesky pundit stuff from windbags like me that the Biden folks have endured before, but the real thing. From serious Democrats. Who will mean it.

Just do the thought equation: the debate was awful + Trump is ahead in key states + Biden campaign has been uninspiring + so Trump is going to win + The Dark Ages will them begin + The Convention has yet to happen = We have to replace Biden as the Democratic candidate or all is lost.

One must remember that the idea of Biden losing in a normal election would be grim but sufferable. “OK, so Romney wins,” the Democratic leaders would think. “Life goes on.” But this is not a normal election. Life as we know it does not go on. There is no 2016-style mystery now built around the “Trump will be a grown up once in office, he’ll have strong people around him, blah, blah” theory.

With an even nuttier, revenge crazed, Reich unifying Trump now on the march, a second Trump term is an unthinkable catastrophe. The stakes are far too high to fool around with sure loser candidates.

Most political insiders will tell you Biden isn’t going anywhere. And procedurally, nothing is going to happen without Biden reluctantly agreeing. But these are not normie times. The inevitable result of a deep panic is loud calls for action. Dumb action maybe, but action.

And hounding Biden to step aside will be the big potential action on the Do SOMETHING!!! menu.

Impossible you say? Remember LBJ after his own early disaster in New Hampshire with Gene McCarthy.

It will come down, in the end, to Joe and Jill deciding. But do not underestimate how loud those calls to step aside will be.

I’m hoping Biden crushes Trump in the debate. And he might. I’m praying for the reset Biden needs to occur and for a good, aggressive plan to exploit that success post debate one. This sustain it point should be automatic, but I worry.

I don’t why but for some reason Biden Inc seems to be allergic to swinging for easy doubles. From ducking a softball Superbowl TV interview, to really trying to run the table with a strong follow up calendar after the President’s legit State of the Union success, it seems like “one and done” is too often the unofficial slogan of the Biden Campaign. That must change. If they have a strong debate, they need to pound for weeks to exploit their victory.

More than anything, I hope the White House is putting plenty of time on the President’s schedule for well-conducted debate prep. He needs it. Incumbent Presidents have a tendency to approach their first debate with a heavy dose of fatal “I got this” arrogance. In 2012 Barack Obama scored a ten on that hubris meter and got a true Chicago ass whuppin’ from Mitt Romney. Biden simply cannot afford to make that same mistake. He must score.

The Biden folks made the right big move with the debate challenge. Now, they need to prep for it as if their whole campaign is it stake. Because it well could be.

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And Nikki Haley?

No surprise here. I always thought she would endorse Trump. Which really means she wants to run again. I’ve written before that it would be hard for her to run a second time, post Trump, without holding her nose and getting on the record for Trump this and then becoming the “I warned you” candidate in 2028 after Trump melts down once and for all; either losing to Biden this year or having a disastrous second term and the attendant 2026 midterm election GOP wipe-out. My advice was two-fold: First, vanish completely. And second, put out a terse for the record Trump endorsement statement during the GOP convention. Instead, like many a pol, she finds the vanishing part impossible to swallow and is lunging back toward the limelight. Nikki has started doing events, led off by her appearance at a Hudson Institute conference where she got, and answered, the Trump question.

Whoops.

That was a big error. Too big, too soon, too public. And now come the predictable heartbroken spasms of anger from those who bought into the “Haley Republican” myth. The fact is the “Haley vote” was always a bit of a chimera: Most of her voters in the primaries were not so much for Nikki as against Trump as the GOP nominee. Instead she was a vessel, for please not that Trump guy again GOP voters and more than a few open primary crossovers who relished the idea of being able to vote against the Orange Menace twice.

Now this Trump endorsement, during the latest Biden will lose panic on the D side, super feeds the narrative that the only thing Haley really believes in is her own ambition, which is both damaging to Nikki and in my view rather close to the truth. My guess is Nikki will now stumble around the B-list GOP circuit yearning for attention, to her detriment. A vanishing act, combined with a crafty Garbo-esque manipulation of mystery over the next 18 months would have been the far smarter move for Haley 2028, but alas, that requires the moth for once, to avoid the flame.

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The EV Campaign War Rages… While China Smiles

The Electric Vehicle debate continues to heat up along with the election calendar. Check out EVPolitics.org to keep up with everything I’m doing in that space. The more I work on this problem they more I am convinced that:

• The Chinese are well on the way to totally dominating the world auto manufacturing industry over the next 15-20 years. Europe is the first stop, then America. You don’t need a crystal ball, just google “British Leyland”. This does not have to happen here, but…

• The unnecessary but powerful forces of political foolishness, numbskullery, and short-term greed are making America’s chances to survive this onslaught worse.

• Comparing Biden and Trump, the Biden position on the EV future is one very good geopolitical/national interest reason to support him over Trump.

• The UAW’s short-term focus is a real problem.

• The products are getting better and better, including the North American-made stuff from Ford, Rivian, GM, Tesla, VW, Mercedes, BMW and more.

Test drive an EV. You’ll like it. And save around $2000 a year in gas.